The year 2020 began on a sombre note with the onset of Covid’19. To this day, it continues to rattle the day to day lives of every human being. Covid’19 is on its way to go down as one of the landmark episodes in the history of the mankind.The socio-economic and psychological impact of Covid’19 will certainly form the crux of many studies across disciplines.
A new “research”,especially on the economic literature emerges everyday to guide the policymakers for future course. And it makes little sense to perform the scenario analysis based on the “no Covid’19” or “pre Covid’19” world and predict the outcomes therein. How would the global economy had shaped up without the Covid’19? How would the companies have managed the supply chain ? How could the workplace dynamics have evolved? As absurd as it may sound, it would still be interesting to view the probable outcomes in the absence of a Covid’19 trigger.
GLOBAL ECONOMY:
According to IMF’s WEO, the world was expected to grow at 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. With “no Covid-19”, even at the worst case the world GDP would still hover between 2.5 percent and 2.8 percent. But this has changed drastically with Covid-19 as the forecasts are still uncertain about the possible impact in quantitative terms. While the global contraction is a given, the magnitude is still to be ascertained.
No-Covid’19 Outcome(probable): Expansion
Post-Covid’19 Outcome(almost certain): Contraction
SUPPLY CHAIN:
While the the over-reliance on specific hubs (read China) would have been business as usual, the Covid’19 world has laid bare the chinks the global supply chain. The companies are now actively looking to revamp their supply chain dynamics with some even contemplating to shift their businesses out and focus on clusters to hedge the emanating logistics risk.
No-Covid’19 Outcome(probable): Concentrated hubs
Post-Covid’19 Outcome(almost certain): Supply Chain Clusters
CENTRAL BANKING:
The central banks have acted like the true messiahs of the global economy in a Covid’19 world- a fact that was pretty uncommon and unheard of until last year. The central banks across the globe have done everything from slashing the interest rate to buying the corporate junk bonds in order to prop up their economies.
No-Covid’19 Outcome(probable): Conventional tools(mostly)
Post-Covid’19 Outcome(almost certain): Out of the box policies
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR:
The hospitality sector led by travel & tourism was one of the hot favourites in a “no Covid’19” world but has been battered severely. Similarly, the Bio-Tech and Pharma sector whose return was contingent upon the research and patents has found its support from the investors in developing the vaccine with relaxed approvals in trials.
No-Covid’19 Outcome(probable): Driven by geo-political and market factors
Post-Covid’19 Outcome(almost certain): May also be driven by health, safety and dynamism .
WORKPLACE:
The concept of work from home(WFH) has become a new norm in Covid’19 world. The idea which was experimented-with a little and had been championed by few have suddenly become an overnight sensation. The companies are increasingly looking to make their staff work remotely and cutting costs on expensive real estate. The use of virtual meeting tools have made the collaboration between the teams have eliminated the need for physical discussions.
No-Covid’19 Outcome(probable): Physical workplace being central
Post- Covid’19 Outcome (almost certain): Virtual workplace
EMERGING FRONTIERS:
The Covid’19 has certainly fast tracked the arrivals of new frontiers with technology at its forefront. The automation will become a mainstay to replace redundancy and acute demand for more advanced human skills will only see a growth. The scenario which otherwise was still few years away will become a reality atleast in the medium term.
No-Covid’19 Outcome(probable): Slow pace of adapting improvements
Post- Covid’19 Outcome (almost certain): Nimble innovations
The world during Covid’19 has definitely changed.The chaos it has brought, the opportunities it has presented and the outcomes it delivered can only be quantified as we move along. Until then, the expected outcome is as good as the individual analysis based on the theory available.